Stock Market Bingo, or, Investing for the uISV

Here’s something a wee bit off the beaten path for this blog: so lets say you’ve got a consistent cash cow, or at least a cash calf, of a program?  Well, I’m a) just not a very spendy person and b) have no efficient method of spending dollars on physical goods and c) have hideous tax and exchange consequences if I ever turn dollars into yen.  So basically my Bingo Card Creator earnings have sat in my US bank account and every month when I send home my transfer to my student loans I tack on the earnings.  Which is saves me 7% a year, and 7% times my lifetime earnings from Bingo Card Creator can buy a whole muffin. ;)  (I actually sort of pre-spent the money I saved from September: it gets me a Wii bit closer to a certain Christmas-present-for-me come December 12th, since I won’t have to transfer that amount of money home to my loans.)

However, as of next month, my student loans are going to be totally paid off (this has been my singleminded financial obsession since I got my current day job).  Hip, hip, hurray.  So I need to do something else with the money rather than let it languish in my checking account.  I considered opening a savings account with my American bank (Bank of America, naturally) but their .5% annual interest makes me wonder if they are sane.  I opened a wee little savings account at ING Direct which pays I want to say 4.4%, and after I figured “Eh, I’m not going to actually touch the money anytime soon” moved it to a 9 month 5.05% CD with them instead.  But investing in CDs is painfully boring and low-return.

Of course, generally as your return goes up so does your risk.  I’m perfectly OK with that, since I’ve been happily living within my means thanks to my day job and have always treated my uISV and the income it produces as an intellectually stimulating hobby.  If I were to sock it away in a portfolio that lost 20% of the value over the next year, it wouldn’t cause me to blink financially.  So I decided to fulfill a lifetime financial goal and become an investor.  (Note for those not in the know: I’m rather young.  I’m honestly embarassed to admit how young, because I have given people advice despite them having been professionals in this field when I was in swaddling clothes, but suffice it to say most people my age aren’t thinking of retirement yet.  Then again, most of us don’t have software companies, either.)

So here’s the question: what to invest in.  I’ve been reading the Wall Street Journal since the age of 8 and this is what I have learned from the experience: the market aggregates information with efficiency and scale which makes Google look like a single-celled organism.  I am not terrible at investing in the way I am terrible at art.  No, I am worse than terrible: I had a mock portfolio in 8th grade and managed to lose 15% of it in an up market in 6 weeks.  So I’m going to do the same thing with stock picking that I do with stock icons: outsource.

So some people would guess “Ah hah, mutual fund, huh”.  Well, yes.  Except not an actively managed mutual fund.  Paying 2% of my investment every year to somebody who has about a 1 in 4 chance of matching the return of the market does not appeal to me.  So instead I’m going with an index fund: pretty much a mathematical guarantee of being about a point below the market, as measured by whatever the tracked index is.  Since my job prospects are heavily, heavily dependent on the health of the Japanese economy, I decided to pick a US index: it lowers the risk of me having a catastrophically negative job market and a catastrophically negative investment market at the same time, and if those two countries are ever both down simultaneously then the world as I know it is pretty much screwed anyhow.  :)  And since my job prospects are similarly very intimately entwined with the tech field I decided to go with something broader (i.e. not NASDAQ): S&P500 sounds good.

Now, when there are billions of dollars to be made doing something there are a million ways to do it, and there are billions of dollars to be made in index funds.  I picked two vehicles based on convinience and a wee bit of research.  The first is a lightly managed large cap S&P500 index fund available through ING, which I figure is good enough for government work.  The second is buying shares in spiders (if you don’t know, pretend its a mutual fund which implements the Stock interface, it will save you pain) on Sharebuilder.  Both are relatively friendly for teeny-tiny little investors like myself, and extremely cheap on the fees (nothing for ING aside from the fairly low management fees on the fund, $4 a trade on Sharebuilder and I plan on making probably one trade a month).

I should also note that I anticipate getting $25 for signing up for Sharebuilder, which ought to improve my annual return a weeee bit :)  I signed up for them after logging into ebates.com, which is essentially an affiliate site that splits their affiliate commission with the customers.  Sharebuilder pays them a $50 affiliate commission or whatever and they Paypal you $25 of it eventually.  (There are also instructions online for abusing Sharebuilder promotion codes to get money from them, but I’m honest.  Besides, this blog gets hit enough by people looking for promotion codes, typically for free Mrs. Fields cookies from Quill, which I mentioned in a few of my posts about customer service.  Oh, if you were searching for a code to get cookies out of Quill, try JUSTFREAKINGASKFORTHEM.)

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Object Lesson on Blogging for your Business

Previously, every time someone has posed the question “Should I make my blog part of my business domain, on a subdomain, or as a different domain altogether?”, I have said “Put it on your main domain, this will allow you to share pagerank between your blog and your business”. What can I say, I really wish that circa June, 2007 I had known enough about my own advice to take it. :)

Steph of real estate software fame recently posted a link to a tool which will tell you your pagerank for different domains after the currently-in-progress PageRank update gets pushed to all the Google clusters. At present, it seems that Bingo Card Creator is a PR4, which is neither terrible nor anything to write home about after I’ve spent a good deal of time trying to build up some links for it. This blog, on the other hand, is PR5 — solely due to people deciding what is here has value and linking it from their blogs (and other content aggregators which are spiderable, such as Slashdot or the WordPress front page).

The difference between PR4 and PR5 is a whole lot of searches, particularly for low-competition niches like, well, Dolch sight words. I now get an absolutely insane number of people who search for my very favorite search terms and come *here* first, then follow the link to my actual product site. This is utterly insane not because of the magnitude, but because I know I must be losing a huge percentage of the potential traffic there. Ah well, lesson learned. Don’t let it happen to you!

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Undergoing Massive Spam Attack Today

After my first post today I apparently triggered some insidious bot lurking in a dark corner of the Interweb: within 45 seconds of bringing my blog back from the dead I got over 200 spam comment submissions, mostly to old posts.  More distressingly, 180 of them sailed right past the spam filter.  All of them were about gambling.  As a result, to prevent me getting repetitive stress disorder from hitting the “mark as spam” button and keep this blog easy to comment on without requiring registration or anything intrusive, I’ve banned the following three words from comments: poker, casino, and gambling.  I don’t anticipate anyone needing to use them, but if for some reason you do you may want to write c@sino or you’ll have your post discarded transparently.

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Bleg for my Mac using friends

I recently released Bingo Card Creator on Versiontracker.com, a Mac software site that is apparently pretty popular.  And by recently I mean less than 12 hours ago.  I’ve already got multiple sales (!) and also multiple bug reports that it doesn’t work on various versions of Mac OS X.  I know it works on at least some Mac machines because I have happy, satisifed customers from the other download sites and I can see successful requests for the check-for-updates page in my HTTP logs which identify themselves as coming from the Mac version.

Two users reporting problems are using Mac OS X 3.9 and 10.4.7.  These numbers might as well be Greek to me since I have no experience using Macs.  The symptom they describe is that the application dies on startup due to Java being unable to find the main class.  This is behavior I am unfortunately distressingly familiar with on Windows, and it is generally the result of a faulty manifest file.  To my knowledge the Mac doesn’t actually read the manifest file (which is in order) but rather uses a special Mac-only pinfo.list file to specify the main class.  However, I have checked and rechecked and the special Mac file which points to the class which is to be executed *appears* to be in proper order.

Thus the request: if you’ve got a Mac OS X lying around, could you please download the software (www.bingocardcreator.com) and tell me exactly what, if any, error message it produces on your particular version of Mac OS X?  I’d be indebted if you had any suggestions as well.

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September Stats

Its that time again. Same disclaimer as all of my stats releases: its tough resolving the edge cases on the 1st and 30th of the month due to time zone issues, I roll out multi-month expenditures so that if I paid 3 months of web service in August I charge myself one month’s worth in September, and I take no responsbility for the accuracy of these figures until it comes time to chat to the IRS and zemusho at the end of the year.

Capsule review: My first two weeks went like gangbusters, my last two weeks have been pretty limp. Google AdWords has thrown me for a loop and I haven’t had the hours in the day to spend to recover from it yet. Text Link Ads were not a very profitable expenditure. Tucows, on the other hand, a direct PR9 link plus significant download traffic means a very happy uISV.

Sales: 22 (+2 refunds: one customer error, one less-than-totally-happy). 2 sales were at a discount through Bits du Jour
Gross sales: $533.90
Net sales after Bits du Jour and Paypal fees: $505.96

Expenses:

Hosting (GoDaddy): $10.02
E-junkie: $5
Tucows Expedited Submission: $52
Google Adwords: $90

Text Link Ads: $35
Total Expenses: $192.02

Profit: $313.94

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Three Cheers for Tucows

I mentioned previously that I was in Tucows purgatory for three weeks after paying them $52 for an expedited submission. I’m currently out of that, thanks to a recommendation from a fellow developer at the Organization of Independent Software Vendors to contact Greg, their webmaster, and stunning customer service of the type which I always advocate giving. It included an apology, an offer to give me a total refund, a choice between the refund and a $100 credit against further services (smart move: it keeps me invested in my business relationship with them — I took it), and listing the software immediately. Yay. I’m going to post my letter to them later because its, in my opinion, a good example of how to phrase a customer support request to get what you want, and succeeded pretty brilliantly. Even business owners are customers roughly half the time, right?

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Time To Get Back On Track

Well, the last two weeks have been sort of a lull for me.  I haven’t been doing much actively working on Bingo Card Creator, owing to being busy at the day job and in life otherwise.  It has also had sales which are a little on the slow side.  7 in the last two weeks, which oddly enough would have made me ecstatic 2 months ago but after my first two weeks of September is a wee bit disappointing.

Oh well.  Here are my plans for going forward:

1)  I’m calling Tucows tonight to figure out, ahem, what the heck they have done with my $52.  I am now severely regretting both paying them and paying them via debit card, because if I had paid them with a credit card I could at least charge them back.

2)  I will be canceling my current Text Link Ads campaigns and work with the Text Link Ads “account manager” to see if there are *any* deals possible in the educational space on their site.  If not, oh well.  They have a generous credit for new customers which I will take a bit of advantage of.

3)  Its time for a website update: I’m thinking of making a page for Halloween bingo to get ready for that, with an AdWords campaign to support it.  If I make the page about a month in advance and then link it from this blog with descriptive anchor text, it will get premium placement on the search results for at least MSN.

4)  Its time to sit down with AdWords again for a few hours and overhaul my advertising campaigns.  I’m currently spending $20 a week and getting approximately nothing from it in terms of sales, and thats just throwing away money at present.  I’m decently positive that I made it work once and can make it work again, Google and their penalty algorithms be darned.

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Text Link Ads

I’m almost leery to mention this because the company approaches the seedier side of the SEO industry, but one of my experiments that I engaged in this month after getting destroyed by AdWords (I’m incidentally less than totally destroyed now: CPA is hovering around $.40 which is survivable if not very profitable) was buying some links from Text Link Ads.  I bought two, paying $15 for one and $20 for the other.  These two links stay up a month and there is no CPC fee.

Here’s the process: you come up with an incredibly short (30 characters as I recall) link, find a site to put it on through their interface, and make the payment for it.  24-48 hours later, the site owner says “OK, I’ll accept that link”, and they get half of the money while Text Link Ads takes the other half.  In return, I get some SEO juice and some natural traffic.

Results after a week have been less than encouraging.  First, Text Link Ads makes it less than transparent to figure out exactly who you’re buying the link from, so that you can’t contact that person off the site and cut Text Link Ads out of the deal.  As a result, I ended up buying a link on a high-traffic “forum for learning/teaching English” which turned out to be a midranked school in Beijing, with PR4.  Not that I have anything against midranked Chinese universities, its just, well, I have a realistic expectation of the likelihood of that link generating one marginal sale in a month (it cost $20).

The other site was “teacher resources for ESL learning”.  Sounds right up my alley, right?  Unfortunately, its almost *designed* to be hard to use (interstitial popup as soon as you get to the page asking for your email address so they can spam you, how lovely!), and my link is actually on the waaaaaaaaaay bottom of the page, competing for attention with some real estate speculators.

Their “inventory” (sites which have offered space for a link) is very, very poor at least when it comes to education (some blogs with two orders of magnitude less traffic than this one, for example, and a couple dozen sites which exist only to make a profit, not to provide anything of value to the visitors), and most of the pages are chock-full of links already.  Now, on the other hand, in the more technically adept parts of the pool there are some places where some offers would be actually attractive.  If I were selling iPod accessories, for example, $20/month for a link on a Mac fan forum with 60,000 members and 1,000 posts a day doesn’t sound like a terrible idea.

End result: Well, you win some, you lose some.  I’m probably not going to be continuing this experiment.  HeyAmigo is also incidentally not ready for prime time: more on that later.

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Crazy Busy This Week

Blog posting has been light due to me being persistently busy with work and a social life, and the business has been more or less running itself.  Here’s my list of stuff to do in near future:

  • See if the Text Link Ads I just bought (trial, really) are going to produce a positive return or not.
  • Get software listed on Tucows (I paid $52 for it, not listed yet)
  • Figure out why my clicks from MSN crashed this last week.  75% decline from my largest source of clicks is worrisome, even if I did have a gain in Google that offset the decline.
  • Thank my lucky stars for having the foresight to create the Mac version.  50% of my (limp) sales this week.
  • Fix thanks.htm because apparently I broke Google’s tracking code *again*.  Oh well, at least I’m positive all my customers are getting their registration keys correctly now — my #1 support issue has vanished totally.  (Big hear-hear for e-junkie, incidentally.)
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Selling Software on a CD

I sold my first copy of Bingo Card Creator on CD today, after having a long-running email exchange with a customer. A lot of people who aren’t the most technologically-savvy in the world prefer to have physical media, as its a) “real” in a way the download is not and b) proof against something going wrong on their computer (although, realistically, a three-second email to me will get their software and key back, but not everybody feels comfortable with that).

So I needed to get a CD to the US, and I needed it done reasonably cheaply, quickly, and with a minimum of work for me. Its certainly not worth sending me out to the video store to buy a CD or a stack of CDs (which I might never use), hand-write a license key on it, and then trudge it out to the post office, buy a padded mailer, and ship it abroad to the US, praying it doesn’t get a 25% tariff or get dropped in the freaking ocean like the last CD I sent to America (a friend’s wedding present, no less).

So I Googled “CD fulfillment”, and got cd-fulfillment.com . About ten minutes of research later I signed up with them, sent them a CD image over the Interweb, and now every time I get an order I just have to log into my account, fill out the order details, and hit “Send”. They take care of the burning, professional-quality labeling, invoice-printing (I get the actual money, they include a nice little letter), shipping, and whatnot. For $4.47 per CD at the quantities I’m likely to be using it as. I charge my customers a flat $5 for the CD option, and the extra $.53 is nominally profit although realistically I’m at a slight loss because of the time it takes to extract the correct information from the email I get from Paypal and put it into cd-fulfillment’s order form. Ahh well, if I end up getting annoyed at it I’ll *gulp* do some Perl magic.

How do you handle a return of a CD? Answer: you don’t. If a customer buys the CD and wants to use the 30-day guarantee, I will tell them to please dispose of the CD and I will take the loss ($4.47). There is no point even *thinking* about going to the post office for a five dollar item, and your customers will appreciate it immensely. This was our policy at Quill too for returns of, e.g., 3 packets of pens on a $500 order because someone else had already bought pens for that office: Oh, thats alright, why don’t you go ahead and give those to charity, we’ll credit your account.

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